blackshama's commentary on Philippine issues

Typhoon Conson (Basyang) was a relatively weak typhoon with a small circulation. I have followed the cyclone's development from a weak low pressure area near Yap island to its intensification in the Philippine Sea as a category 1 typhoon. It got most of its steam from the deep and warm waters of the Philippine Sea. What I found very unusual is that one of the first storms of the season followed an almost westerly track. Check out the maybagyo.com forecast scenarios. Typhoons that follow this route usually do so late into the season in October and November. The reason given by meteorologists is that there was a strong high pressure steering ridge in southern China. Usually northwest Pacific typhoons swerve and take a curving path towards northern Luzon, Taiwan and Southern Japan during July. So Conson made a beeline for Metro Manila and by the time it passed over the city. it had a maximum wind speed of 95 km/hr with gusts of 110 km/hr. This made it as a tropical storm rather tha...

For years or decades even wags have made fun of the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) acronym. The parodies started really with GMA Channel 7 weatherman Amado Pineda's way of making the forecast in the late 1970s and Amanda Pineda (played by Tessie Tomas) was born in the comedy show Champoy a few years after. Incidentally, Tomas' Amanda Pineda character launched her career into the comedy galaxy. People always have said that PAGASA is really "walang PAGASA" (no hope) since the weather predictions come after the fact. The joke was or is or will be rain is forecast after the rain has fallen. But that was before the age of human induced climate change! But recently PAGASA's predictions have no longer sounded funny. Typhoon Mina (Mitag) was forecast to hit southern Luzon but days earlier international forecasts predicted that the howler will pass over northern Luzon. Apparently the storm did pass over northern Luzo...

Manila, Philippines - Busy areas of the city went underwater because of a steady rain due to a cold front. One of the worst hit are roads leading to the airport. I wonder how people who need to catch a flight managed. In Meteorology 101 we define a cold front as " the transition zone where a cold air mass is replacing a warmer air mass." Cooler air that wedges below the warm air mass causes that air to rise. This causes precipitation as the front passes. The precipitation is usually not as bad as a monsoon (which is guaranteed to sink Manila) but it seems that even a light steady rain is now able to sink the city under water! This should give our city authorities some pause for thought. In temperate climes the passage of a front is dramatic. The rains come and after a few hours when the front has passed the temperature can drop as much as 10 degrees celsius and bright sunny weather follows. Cold fronts are major rainmakers in these climates. Their effects can be dramatic in...