Skip to main content

Philippine elections 2007: The geography of cheating and the religious vote

Geography

The casting of ballots ended at 3:00 PM and now the antiquated way of counting the votes begin. Manolo Quezon blogs about the geography of cheating and electoral fraud. When I was enrolled in some higher statistics courses at the UP School of Statistics, I was enrolled in a probability course and the professor required us to listen to a lecture on vote irregularities and the probability of that happening.

It was Gloria's time to be elected in her own right as queen regnant and not just as a heir to the throne who took over under constitutionally questionable circumstances. But as history unfolded Gloria Regina's crown of winning votes has "Hello Garci" written over it. Filipino citizens everywhere until this election are not convinced that she was truly elected as President.

Thus the geography of cheating and probability of that happening was interesting to put it mildly. Yes there were areas that the probability of cheating was highest. But those were in a few places. In some places where the public thought cheating was rampant, it was hard to statistically say with good probability that cheating did occur.

If Manolo Quezon's geography is right, then what has been trialled in 2004 is now being applied to many places. I am not surprised that statisticians are on the front line of government apologists attempts to discredit surveys. Statistics geeks will have compute if there is really spatial autocorrelation in cheating. If there is then this is clear evidence of massive palace directed effort. I will not go into how organized efforts cause autocorrelation but human behaviour is a major factor in it.

Someone ought to write a PhD on this subject.

Regina Gloria may have the last laugh.

Let the cold logic of analysis begin. Regina Gloria and I have something in common. We are both PhDs

The religious vote

The Inquirer (PDI)today had a profile of the whole electorate and 75% is Catholic. It does not surprise me at all. But the Catholic Church should take heed. Once it comprised more than 80% of the electorate.

People don't give much attention to the Iglesia Filipina Independiente but if the PDI is to be believed the Aglipayans may have a hidden clout. They are still the second largest church in the Philippines. The Independientes have always been at odds with the Palace being true to its revolutionary heritage. President Ferdinand Marcos had the good sense to cajole this Revolutionary Church even if it is claimed he was a member.

Islam is second. But we still have to see if Muslims are politically savvy enough to influence national elections.

The Iglesia ni Cristo comes after Islam in numbers. But it is a good hypothesis to say that by playing safe in its choices of candidates, its ability to wield political influence is diluted. Of course it may tip the balance in constituencies where Iglesia co-religionists are the majority. But is the INC the majority in most constituencies? It is very likely that the importance of the INC bloc of votes is much overblown.

The El Shaddai is listed as a separate sect. At 0.8 percent of the electorate, it's influence is even less than that of the INC. Mike Velarde's claim to influence elections is really overblown. If El Shaddai is a separate sect, the Catholic Bishops and Benedict XVI should wake up, they have already a schism without them noticing it!

The Catholic Bishops and their influence is waning. Too bad.

Let the cold logic of analysis reign.

Comments

engineerOFW said…
Do you really want the Catholic Bishops to wield clout?
blackshama said…
No. In the same way I don't want the Iglesia ni Cristo to wield clout. In fact I believe that the State should have laws institutionalizing secularism. Any religious group that violates the strict separation of religion and state should be considered as a secular corporation. and be taxed.

Amen

Popular posts from this blog

President Manuel Luis Quezon's Code of Ethics

Being a denizen of Kyusi, in honour of the man who gave my city its name and for being the most colourful prez the Philippines ever had, I have the pleasure to post Manuel L Quezon's Code of Ethics on his birthday. Let us profit from the wisdom of the Kastila.

1. Have Faith in the Divine Providence that guides the destinies of men and nations.

2. Love your country for it is the home of your people, the seat of your affection and the source of your happiness and well-being. It's defense is your primary duty. Be ready to sacrifice and die for it if necessary.

3. Respect the Constitution which is the expression of your sovereign will. The government is your government. It has been established for your safety and welfare. Obey the laws and see that they are observed by all and that public officials comply with their duties.

4. Pay your taxes willingly and promptly. Citizenship implies not only rights but obligations.

5. Safeguard the purity of suffrage and abide by the decisions of the…

Simoun's lamp has been lit, finally.. not by one but by the many!

"So often have we been haunted by the spectre of subversion which, with some fostering, has come to be a positive and real being, whose very name steals our serenity and makes us commit the greatest blunders... If before the reality, instead of changing the fear of one is increased, and the confusion of the other is exacerbated, then they must be left in the hands of time..."
Dr Jose Rizal "To the Filipino People and their Government"
Jose Rizal dominates the Luneta, which is sacred to the Philippine nation as a place of martyrdom. And many perhaps all of those executed in the Luneta, with the exception of the three Filipino secular priests martyred in 1872, have read Rizal's El Filibusterismo. Dr Rizal's second novel is a darker and more sinister one that its prequel but has much significance across the century and more after it was published for it preaches the need for revolution with caveats,  which are when the time is right and who will instigate it.

Flame trees in bloom

The hottest summer courtesy of El Nino in at least 10 years gave runners and walkers in the University of the Philippines Diliman campus a visual treat. This year the flame trees Delonix regia are in full bloom!
In past summers it wasn't as hot and dry so the trees did not shed their leaves and few blooms were produced.
It is the tropical version of the Japanese Hanami or the Cherry blossom viewing season. While Hanami tells us the fragile impermanence of beauty, the flame tree hanami tells us that summer burns but soon it will all be over.